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ADOPTED: FLOWS Planning for Frailty: Optimal Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation Using
Demand-led Simulation Modelling

Principal Investigator: Dr Bronagh Walsh, Associate Professor, School of Health Sciences, University of Southampton.

Team: Professor Peter Griffiths , School of Health Sciences, University of Southampton: Dr Carole Fogg, School of Health Sciences, University of Southampton: Mr Mike Hepburn, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton: Dr Abigail Barkham, Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust: Honorary Professor Martin Vernon, Tameside and Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust: Professor Lee-Ann Fenge, Department of Social Work and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University: Professor Jane Ball, School of Health Sciences, University of Southampton: Professor Sally Brailsford, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton: Ms Francesca Lambert, PPI lead, School of Health Sciences, University of Southampton.

Start: 01/11/2022

End: 31/10/2025

Background: As the population ages, robust workforce planning to meet future demands for health and social care by older people is needed. A lack of evidence in this area has led to a mis-match between the health and social care demand from the ageing population and the current workforce capacity. The proposed study will use demand-led simulation modelling of the workforce required to address the specific challenge of providing health and social care for the growing numbers of older people living with frailty.

Aims & Objectives: The aim of the study is to use simulation modelling to explore long-term trends in frailty-related health and social care use in the ageing population and its implications for future workforce size and competencies to support high quality care. The primary objective of this study is the creation of a simulation model that will inform service and workforce planning to meet health and social care needs associated with frailty.

Methods: The study will use a System Dynamics design to develop and test the simulation model. Work packages comprise a scoping review, gathering of public and professional perspectives on service provision via a survey and stakeholder engagement activities, and analysis of linked health and social care data, all of which inform the simulation modelling work package and development of a workforce planning toolkit.

Timelines for delivery:

  1. The scoping review will be completed in year 1. Routine health and social care data specification and extraction will occur in year 1, as will service mapping and classification and survey preparation.

  2. Survey data collection and analysis will occur in year 2. Simulation modelling will commence in year 2, with validation, sensitivity analyses and scenario modelling in year 3.

  3. Development of workforce guidelines and toolkit will occur in. year 3 Stakeholder engagement, including patient public involvement, will run throughout the study, reviewing study results and informing development of the other work packages.

Anticipated impact & dissemination: This study will provide new, direct evidence about the impact of frailty on health and social care workforce requirements within the ageing population The improved understanding of workforce requirements offered by this study will inform workforce planning for frailty services across health and social care, ensuring future benefit for patients through provision of timely and appropriate care and a workforce

planning toolkit to support local decision-making.

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