Research input to influence NHS 10 year workforce plan

Associate Professor Chiara Dall'Ora is the ARC Wessex Workforce lead

Research funded and supported by NIHR ARC Wessex in conjunction with University of Southampton has submitted evidence to the NHS 10-Year Workforce Plan.

It has drawn on our extensive research into safe staffing, workforce sustainability, and digital innovation.

The response highlights the need for long-term investment in domestic nursing supply, realistic modelling assumptions, and fair rostering practices. We also stress that technology and skill-mix changes must be grounded in evidence to avoid compromising care quality. Our recommendations aim to support the NHS in building a resilient, skilled workforce capable of delivering safe, effective, and person-centred care.

Dr Chiara Dall'Ora was one of the many leading researchers to compile the submissioon. She said: "Ensuring the sustainability of the health workforce requires more than short-term fixes. Our research shows that investment in permanent staffing, fair rostering, and evidence-based planning is critical to patient safety and workforce wellbeing. Future workforce planning must be grounded in robust evidence, recognising that technology can support care delivery but cannot replace the expertise and human connection that underpin safe, effective health care delivery"

One of the main ARC Wessex funded projects was PREDICT-NURSE which tested an algorithm alongside routine hospital data to establish nurse workload - The paper is published here - Estimating Nurse Workload Using a Predictive Model From Routine Hospital Data: Algorithm Development and Validation

The full submission from the research team at the University of Southampton and ARC Wessex is available here

Chiara Dall'Ora and Dr Christina Saville created two animations to highlight the concerns of staffing and nurse burnout on patients safety. One from the perspective of the patient, the other from the view of a nurse caring for them.

Other publications supported by ARC Wessex

Barker HR, Griffiths P, Dall'Ora C. "I don't think there's necessarily a one size fits all" negotiating competing priorities in nurse shift scheduling: a qualitative study. BMC Nurs 2025;24(1):1048. doi: 10.1186/s12912-025-03705-6 (My AMS study)

Griffiths P, Saville C, Ball J, et al. Nursing Team Composition and Mortality Following Acute Hospital Admission. JAMA Netw Open 2024;7(8):e2428769. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.2876 (WHOs study)

Dall'Ora C, Meredith P, Saville C, et al. Nurse Staffing Configurations and Nurse Absence Due to Sickness. JAMA Netw Open 2025;8(4):e255946. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.5946 (WHOs study)

Griffiths, P., et al. Costs and cost-effectiveness of improved nurse staffing levels and skill mix in acute hospitals: A systematic review. Int. J. Nurs. Stud., 2023. 147: p. 104601. (WHOs study)

Griffiths, P., et al. Nurse staffing levels, missed vital signs and mortality in hospitals: retrospective longitudinal observational study. Health Services and Delivery Research Journal, 2018. 6(38). (WHOs study)

Saville, C., et al. Cost-effectiveness of eliminating hospital understaffing by nursing staff: a retrospective longitudinal study and economic evaluation. BMJ Qual Saf, 2025: p. Bmjqs-2024- 018138. (WHOs study)